Can We Really Trust Computer Models When Tracking Winter Storms?
Another winter storm is being predicted to hit Rochester this weekend. At this point, I want to cower in a corner and wait for winter to be over, who's with me?! I think we're all really hoping the predictions are wrong and we won't get a blizzard because they've been wrong in the past! So how much can we really trust these computer models when it comes to predicting winter storms?
There have been SO many times when the storm predictions were wrong this winter. They say we'll get 10 inches of snow, we'll get 1, they say we'll get 1, we get 10. Do you see where I'm going here? I'm getting a little annoyed that we can't seem to trust anyone with weather predictions right now, I'd like to know if I have to camp out at home for 24 hours or not, thanks.
Storm specialist, Tim Purington, told Bring Me The News on Tuesday "I wouldn't give any credence to any model this far out. You might have one event where the Euro is right on or one event where the GFS is right on. They vary. It's better to take a blend of all of them together and average it out."
I'm sorry, Euro? GFS?
The National Weather Service uses all sorts of computer models to predict the weather. Here are some of them:
- European model (Euro)
- American model (GFS)
- Canadian model (GEM or CMC)
- North American Model (NAM)
And if you look at these, they're predictions for the winter storm this weekend are all different. Great.
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