Historic Weather Event Forming: What That Means For Summer and Winter in Minnesota

NOAA is currently reporting an 82% chance that El Niño emerges by July, and AccuWeather is upping the ante and betting there's a 30% chance it turns into a "Super" El Niño by November. That’s a big deal, considering we’ve only seen a "Super" event a handful of times in the last 75 years.

The team at Weather.com says El Niños typically don’t affect our summer weather much here in Minnesota. Winter, on the other hand, is a completely different story.

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What is El Niño?

El Niño happens when the water in the Pacific Ocean is warmer than usual. That warm water pushes the Pacific jet stream south. When that jet stream shifts, it changes everything—bringing floods to some places and droughts to others.

El Niño's Impact on Minnesota Weather

You probably won't notice anything this summer and fall. El Niño's impact is mostly felt during the winter months.

For Minnesota, El Niño usually acts like a big warm blanket. Historically, El Niño winters are warmer with significantly less snow. This is good news for Minnesotans who hate brutal cold temps and lots of snow.

However, the Minnesota DNR reminds us that El Niño doesn't mean winter is canceled. We might see fewer storms overall, but the ones that do hit can still pack a punch. The famous Halloween Blizzard of 1991 actually happened during a strong El Niño.

Long story, short: Keep your snowblower ready just in case, but don’t expect to put many hours on it this winter.