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We might still be in the last week of summer (even though it's mid-September already) but the National Weather Service just released their updated long-range winter outlook for Minnesota.

I don't have any data to support this, but it seems to me that the summer of 2022 has been less hot and humid than it was in 2021. And, at least at our place in northwest Rochester, we've had way more rain than we did last summer too, as our lawn will attest (it's much more green than it was a year ago.)

And that kind of weather appears to be headed toward the Land of 10,000 Lakes this winter, as well, if you believe the long-range winter outlook just released by National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

While the NWS CPC doesn't compile a long-range forecast specifically for Minnesota, you can see from the maps below that the North Star State is included in a region that could likely see below-average temperatures during what's called 'meteorological winter'-- meaning the months of December 2022, and January and February 2023.

National Weather Service
National Weather Service

Meanwhile, the long-range precipitation outlook for Minnesota for those same months of December 2022, and January and February 2023 is kind of a toss-up: we're officially in the 'equal chances' area where forecasters believe there are equal chances of either above or below average precipitation.

It's also worth noting that the NWS CPC says there's an 89 percent chance of a continuation of La Niña in the Northern Hemisphere this winter. And, according to MPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner, that means we might want to keep the scarves and snow shovels handy: "La Niña events show about a 70 to 80 percent correlation historically with colder and snowier than average winters in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest,' he noted last year.

National Weather Service
National Weather Service

So will we actually see a colder, snowier winter in Minnesota this year? Nobody really knows I guess. My friend, who's a meteorologist back in Wisconsin, came up with a winter prediction that's nearly 100% accurate, however: "Colder, with some snow..." is how he'd respond when someone asked him about what the weather will be like this winter. It's tough to dispute that forecast, right?

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